|
"The global financial
crisis and the associated credit crunch
have brought an end to the period of easy
credit that in recent years has been the
bedrock of rapid rises in house prices,"
said Roger Bootle, Deloitte's economic adviser.
A prolonged period of economic downturn
may also force employers to "wield
the axe more sharply", the report said.
Deloitte, a global
auditing and financial services company,
expects the British economy to grow by 2%
this year and by a slightly smaller margin
in 2009 - down from 3.2% in 2006. Deloitte
said Britain would not be bailed out of
its downturn by another major economy, saying
it expects US growth to slow to zero in
the first half of this year.
Europe, which is Britain's
biggest export market, will remain relatively
strong but will not be able to offset a
downturn. Neither, it said, will India and
China be able to help Britain as the two
countries buy less than 5% of British exports.
The Deloitte report
brings mixed news for India.
Finance Minister P
Chidambaram told a meeting in Davos last
week that his hunch was that the US economy
will probably slow down, growing at 1 to
1.5% for the next two to three quarters
before bouncing back. Any slowdown in Britain
too will affect India. The trade in goods
in alone was worth £4.4 billion last
year, with the balance of trade slightly
in favour of India. British imports of Indian
goods were worth £2.5 billion, while
its exports to India amounted to £1.9
billion.
The news that the European
economy will remain relatively strong should
bring some cheer to corporate India. Chidambaram
told the World Economic Forum that the Indian
economy could be affected if the turmoil
in the US affects Europe.
The Deloitte report
forecasts that the British base rate will
fall to 4 % in 2009 from 5.5 % now.
|